Understanding Due Dates & Trusting Your Baby’s Timing

As we settle into winter and the year begins to wind down, I’ve been reflecting on the idea of timing and how things unfold in their own rhythm, not always according to our plans. This is certainly true for babies who have no idea of the 'due dates' that we assign to them.

When I look at the birthdays in my own family, my siblings and I each arrived in the world on our own schedule. When my mum was pregnant with me, she was given a due date that was four days before I actually made my entrance and yet I never think of myself as being born 'late'. I was happy and healthy with my extended stay in utero, and my mum was also healthy and well. I got here just when I was supposed to.

Conversely, my youngest brother and sister, who also share my birthday month, were each born before their estimated due dates. Once again, everyone was healthy and well.

What a due date really means 

An estimated due date is exactly that - an estimate. It is not a deadline or best before date, and it is not a moment your body or baby is aiming for.

In fact, the World Health Organisation recognises the average length of pregnancy as falling anywhere between 37 and 42 weeks. That gives us a full five-week window of normal variation. When you view pregnancy through this lens, a single date makes far less sense. A due date is often better understood as a 'due period', or even 'due from', rather than one fixed day to hang all your expectations on.

In the UK, due dates are calculated as 40 weeks from the first day of the last menstrual period (LMP). This calculation assumes a 28-day cycle with ovulation happening on day 14. Many women know their cycles do not follow this pattern, which means the maths can be off from the very start. Dating scans can adjust the due date based on measurements, but these too are estimates rather than precise answers. Babies grow at different rates, and size does not equal readiness.

Babies are rarely born on their due date

Statistics consistently show that only around 4% - 5% of babies are born on their estimated due date. Most arrive within a window of roughly a week on either side. This natural spread is normal and expected.

What’s especially telling is that this pattern remains even in IVF pregnancies, where the exact date of conception is known. Even then, only a small proportion of babies are born on their calculated due date. This reminds us that birth timing depends on far more than dates or measurements. Hormones, foetal maturation, placental signalling and maternal readiness all play their part. Labour begins when these systems align, not when the calendar reaches a certain number.

When the date comes and goes

Despite this, once a pregnancy reaches 40 weeks, conversations often turn quickly towards intervention. Induction can be presented as routine, particularly for women from Black, Asian and mixed-heritage backgrounds, where it may be offered earlier and sometimes without a clear medical reason.

Reaching 40 or even 41 weeks does not automatically mean something is wrong. In the absence of medical concerns for mother or baby, many pregnancies can safely continue beyond the estimated date. This can be a time that calls for patience, close monitoring where appropriate, and informed discussion rather than urgency.

Making decisions with confidence

If induction or other interventions are suggested, you have the right to understand why. You are entitled to ask questions and take time to consider what feels right for you and your baby.

The BRAINS framework can be a helpful guide:

• Benefits: What are the benefits of this recommendation?

• Risks: What are the possible risks or downsides?

• Alternatives: Are there other options?

• Instincts: How do you feel about it?

• Nothing: What happens if we do nothing for now and wait?

  
  

This framework can support you in confident, grounded decision-making, even when there is pressure to act.

Trusting the unseen work

As the darker months invite us to slow down, they offer a quiet reminder that rest, waiting and unseen work are part of nature’s design. Seeds grow beneath the soil long before we see any change above ground. Babies prepare for birth in much the same way.

Your baby knows when the time is right. And with the right support and information, you can trust yourself to navigate this final stretch too.

Here at The Sankofa Birth Experience, we support women to reconnect with trust in their bodies and the natural rhythm of birth. Through holistic birth preparation and education, we explore practical tools alongside the mindset that allows birth to unfold in its own time, calmly, safely and with confidence. Get in touch if you'd like to find out how we can assist you in your birth preparation.